October 22nd, 2008
A story reported by Reuters gives us an insight into how long commercial lenders and borrowers believe the credit crunch will last in Spain.
The article deals with how Reyal Urbis, one of Spain’s largest developers, has managed to secure additional funding:
“Spanish real estate company Reyal Urbis said on Monday it had reached a deal with creditors to refinance debt of 3.006 billion euros. In a statement to the stock exchange regulator, the firm said it had obtained two new credit lines which gave the company ‘the necessary liquidity for its operative management’.”
“Under the new financing terms, the company has postponed its first payment on the debt until October 2011 and signed up to twice-yearly payments after that date until 2015. In 2015, it will have to pay off the remaining 40 percent of the debt.”
This tells us that Reyal anticipate being in a position to make substantial debt repayments in 2011 and to resolve the debt completely by 2015. In order for them to be in a position to do so, the company would need to be experiencing an increased volume of property sales by 2011 - probably on the back of stronger sales in 2010.
This indicates that the very bottom of the market is likely to be experienced between now and sometime in 2009, because for Reyal Urbis to make property sales, a fair chunk of the 1 million excess properties floating around the market will need to have already been sold.
The lenders were not named in the article, but whoever they are, they’re betting the thick end of 3 Billion Euros on Reyal’s business plan and sales forecasts. To my knowledge, this is the first time that a Spanish property company has announced the terms of a successful debt renegotiation - and the first time the public gets an insight into when the Spanish property market is likely to pick up - according to those with the highest stakes in play.
Martin Dell, Kyero.com